New Delhi (Syndicate Features): Despite the West’s long crusade for democracy there are countries where one-man or one-party rule looks to be in no danger of going into oblivion. One such country is Zimbabwe where the autocratic regime of President Robert Mugabe has reduced the once fairly prosperous country into abject poverty. One unique - or dubious - distinction of his over two decade rule is that inflation in Zimbabwe has run into six figures. Though most people in Zimbabwe are jobless the few who are lucky enough to have some job are paid in ‘billions’ of local currency - actually no more than a few dollars in value. With its currency so heavily devalued, Zimbabwe has reverted to the ancient barter system. Here in India even eight per cent inflation has become a political foot-ball.
The octogenarian Mugabe has steadfastly and haughtily refused to end his autocratic rule and has no qualms about rigging polls in the most blatant manner. There have been, however, some ‘rumours’ that he may relent - but in no case can his successor be from an Opposition party. The security forces in Zimbabwe have declared they would not recognise anyone other than Mugabe as president.
In the polls last March, known as much for violence as for rigging, most people believed that Mugabe had lost to the Opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai. The poll results were withheld inordinately, presumably to manipulate a clear victory for him. So overwhelming was the vote against him he could not accomplish that.
The next best thing was to rig the results in a way that did not give his rival the 50 per cent votes necessary for an outright victory. In Zimbabwe, as in some other countries, the winning candidate must take 50 per cent of the votes; if he fails to do so another round of polls follows.
That crucial stage in Zimbabwe is now set for June 27. After some hesitation initially Tsvangirai has decided to participate in the second round, knowing full well that odds are heavily stacked against him. He does not want to concede a walkover to Mugabe. He seems to count on the fact that by now the oppressive ways of Mugabe have alienated the people so much that they are ready to risk their lives to vote Mugabe out. After the runaway inflation it must be the other unique feature of Zimbabwe that nobody in the country talks about armed insurgency to throw out a dictator, the course often adopted by suppressed people in many parts of the world.
A trailer of what can be expected on or before the June 27 poll has already been running in the country. Tsvangirai was detained for nine hours during a poll campaign. Another Opposition MDC leader was arrested for writing an editorial critical of Mugabe. Rallies of MDC are routinely banned. Thousands of MDC supporters have been arrested; many have been beaten or forced to leave their homes. It has been reported that 65 MDC supporters have been killed since March.
Parts of Zimbabwe are unofficially declared no-go areas for the Opposition. The Opposition candidates and supporters are banned from carrying arms for their protection. Not even radio, lest they get crazy ideas from foreign broadcasting stations! Some areas considered traditional bastions of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party, were lost to the MDC in the March ballot. As a result thousands had to flee for safety. They will be allowed to vote on June 27 but only in their original ward. That may not be possible because of the obvious threat to their lives. The state offers them no assurance of safety.
March election also voted for a new parliament besides the President. Significantly, despite the questionable verdict of the Presidential poll, opposition candidates were able to get majority in Parliament. An electoral body managed to deploy 8000 volunteers as observers then. Now the same body finds it difficult to repeat its job in the run-off election. Its offices have been raided and its members harassed. Its monitors will have to apply for fresh accreditation if they want to watch the polling process. The New York-based Human Rights Watch has come to the conclusion that Zimbabweans cannot vote freely ‘if they fear that their vote may get them killed.’
There is hardly any possibility of the presence of neutral observers during the next round of the presidential poll. Observers and monitors from the United Nations, the European Union and western countries will be barred from entering Zimbabwe. Only observers from some ‘friendly’ countries in the neighbourhood will be allowed in. Obviously, these ‘friendly’ countries consider Mugabe an amiable fellow, contrary to what most people in his own country seem to think. Their leaders are not happy when hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans seek shelter - and jobs - in their countries, but they would not ask Mugabe to mend his ways for the sake of his country and his people.
The President of South Africa, Thabe Mbeki, has been the African ‘mediator’ whose primary task was to narrow the divisions between Mugabe and the Opposition. In a letter ‘leaked’ recently Tsavangirai has asked Mbeki to give up his efforts because he has proved to be ineffectual, sounded partial and even scuttled efforts to discuss the Zimbabwean crisis at the UN. (Mbeki says he has not received the letter.)
Reminding Mbeki that despite his ‘mediation’ Zimbabwe was plunged into the spell of ‘horrendous’ violence after the March 2008 poll, Tsavangirai cautioned him if the situation did not change ‘there will be no country left.’ The Zimbabwe Opposition has refused to participate in any further talks with Mbeki and, instead, has asked for the appointment of a broader team of mediators. Time is running out for Zimbabwe. (Syndicate Features)
