By Vinod Vedi New Delhi (Syndicate Features): Events in Bangladesh could well be described as the mirror image of what had happened in Pakistan over the past decade under General Pervez Musharraf or as the product of the natural progression that is inherent in military dictatorships and "army-backed” governments. The commonality is uncanny.
Take the concept of "minus two". Musharraf employed it in the hope that with both the leaders of the mainstream political parties in exile under threat of judicial conviction on charges of corruption he would be able to execute his blue print of political engineering to perfection ensuring legitimacy for his own continuance as an executive President backed by an Army that saw great advantages in retaining him as the boss man because it suited its corporate interests. With both the charismatic Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party and the wily Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League in exile, Musharraf was sure that he had his country all sewed up and set to be delivered to his benign care. Things would have gone his way had not the truism of absolute power corrupting absolutely not come in his way and he made his misconceived assault on the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the boomerang occurred.
Now consider what is happening in Dhaka. It is act two of Minus Two theory. The first act had misfired as Sheik Hasina of Awami League and Khaleda Zia of BNP proved that the ‘caretaker’ regime was no match to their ability to turn any situation to their advantage. The second act is unfolding. How far it will succeed is a big question. Sheik Hasina has been released from jail where she was lodged on corruption charges and sent to the US for treatment as advised by her doctors. Begum Khaleda Zia release has however hit a roadblock. She has refused to leave the country on the excuse of going abroad for medical treatment obviously confident that the Caretaker Government of Iajuddin Ahmed backed by Chief of Army Staff Moeenuddin Ahmed is finding it difficult to prosecute the corruption charges brought against her and her two sons.
If she does not leave, the political equation in the run-up to the proposed election at the end of the year could favour the BNP and tilt the balance against an Awami League that would be decapitated in the absence of Sheikh Hasina.
If Sheikh Hasina does not on her own return to the country before the election process gets into high gear, the politics in Bangladesh could become totally skewed in favour of Islamic fundamentalist elements because the other three members of the BNP-led coalition consist of political entities that share and contribute to the Al Qaeda kind of Islam. It must be said to the credit of the Caretaker Government of Iajuddin Ahmed and the army chief General Moeenuddin Ahmed that they have taken decisive steps against Islamic fundamentalists and have tried and executed the notorious Bangla Bhai who had spread the poison of Islamism far and wide in Bangladesh and contributed to cross border terrorism by the Harkat ul Jamaat Islami (HUJI) deep inside India.
Such a circumstance will also give ascendancy to those opposed to the "spirit of the liberation” which cut the umbilical cord with Pakistan and brought about the birth of Bangladesh in 1971. It needs to be recalled that Begum Zia is the wife of the former Chief of the Bangladesh Army Gen Ziaur Rahman who had led a coup. He formed the BNP and ruled Bangladesh till he was overthrown by another military officer, Gen Ershad, who too formed his own political party.
The military-backed Caretaker Government has taken steps to remove the many anomalies that existed in the electoral rolls (the names of lakhs of voters had been left out by the BNP Government of Khaleda Zia) and has thus set the stage for the elections. Attempts, as in the case of Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan, to institutionalize the changes in governance by the Caretaker have contributed to a debate over the creation of "national government" firstly to handle the fallout of a boycott of the elections by one or both of the mainstream parties and then to ensure that some of the good steps taken by the Caretaker government are continued. Also, the concept was intended to stop the possibility of victimization and vengeance against political opponents which even before the BNP could complete its tenure the last time had deteriorated to a bloodbath.
Needless to say both mainstream parties are cold to the concept of a "national government". They refused to endorse a "national charter" and a roundtable conference called to discuss the proposal added a new kink to Bangladesh politics - the creation, as in the case of Pakistan, of a National Security Council. This body, intrinsically, gives weightage to the military in the political scheme of things and is generally viewed with suspicion by practitioners of democracy.
Apparently, in preparation for the creation of the NSC there has been a reshuffle of top military brass and the dispatch of the second most powerful man in the Bangladesh Army - Lt. Gen Masududdin Ahmed Chaudhury has been shifted to head the low-key National Defense College and the incumbent commandant Lt-Gen Abu Tayeb Mohammad Zahirul Alam has been appointed Ambassador to Australia.
The reshuffle took place a few months after General Moeen U. Ahmed was given a one-year extension as Chief of Army Staff apparently to ensure continuity in setting the stage for holding elections by the end of the year. It also was intended to silence those right-wing elements within the BNP coalition who had begun to target Gen Moeen for dealing harshly with Bangla Bhai and other extremists within Bangladesh. Also, it would have been inopportune to allow him to retire in the midst of the massive crisis caused by the cyclone that struck Bangladesh earlier this year. (Syndicate Features)
